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Storm: POTENTIAL CYCLONE 2
90% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT.....
LOOKS LIKE WHAT IS NOW POTENTIAL CYCLONE 2 IS GOING TO TAKE THE EXTREME SOUTHWARD PATH, NOT IMPACTING THE TEXAS COAST. CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
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Area of Interest Gulf of Mexico Latest tropical models show a west-southwest movement of the surface low over the next 24 hours, then a turn to the north-northwest toward the Mid-Coast region by Thursday. Ensemble runs of the ECENS/GEPS show similar tracks while GEFS shows more of a southwest movement toward the lower Texas coast before turning and moving northward. Latest outlook from NHC mentions the possibility of a short-lived tropical depression forming in the next 48 hours before moving inland on Thursday. Will have to watch this system for development, but for now will show a trough of low pressure along the coast Thursday morning that moves inland in the afternoon. Medium range models show a mid level low near the Middle Texas coast Thursday that will drift northward into the Victoria Crossroads Friday.
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Area of Interest Eastern Atlantic This system currently is showing a low potential, 20 percent of developing into a tropical cyclone. However, conditions ahead of it may become more conducive for development next week. Need to monitor this one.
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THE FIRST DAY OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON WAS JUNE 1ST AND WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR THE NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS, HURRICANES, AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE 14, 7, AND 3, RESPECTIVELY.
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